The USD did experience a slightly weaker day when compared to the rest of the week against the GBP. During the day we saw the rate move from it’s lowest of 1.4260 to it’s highest of 1.4330. Not a big movement, but nice to see some respite for the Pound.
We are watching for:
- Consumer Price Index from the US. A measure of inflation, literally, how much is the same basket of goods over time – more or less expensive. This is a key figure and forecast to show huge increases over the year. If this is the case (or higher) expect the USD to gather strength with speed
- On Monday next week, Purchasing Managers Index. A gauge of business conditions for the (in today’s case) manufacturing industry. A positive figure will boost the USD, though it’s likely to be only a very slight impact.
I expect the USD to see some gains during the bulk of the day, before pulling back ahead of the close of play.
The EUR did pull back a bit during the course of yesterday’s trading, but again, this was not a major move. The day’s low was 1.2810 and we saw a high of almost 1.2970. Today as I write we are trading the GBPEUR at 1.2871.
The news to look for on the horizon is:
- Both the services and manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (a measure of the conditions in these two industries) are with us on Monday.
- German GDP is on Monday as well – Germany being the biggest economy in the Eurozone, this can be a key item
Today, though, much focus will be on the European Union talks that David Cameron is attending and driving an agenda. I am looking for a day with not a lot of movement for the GBPEUR.
On the back of the news received earlier in the week, the GBP did gain a little ground against it’s two major trading currency partners. It’s been a quiet trading day or so, though, for most.
What’s moving things today:
- The UK Retail Price Index, showing how much British consumers are buying in shops etc. Quite a large increase is forecast and that is good, however…
- A figure reflecting how much the Public sector are borrowing and a growth in this figure is bad – and the figure is forecast to double from the last reading, so I interpret this as the more impactful of the two.
Overall, I would expect a weaker GBPUSD and a fairly flat GBPEUR.
All opinions expressed are not intended or designed as advice, they are the opinion of the author only.