Again, the GBP clawed back just a little bit of gain against the USD but again a day without too much movement. Opening at the 1.4320 mark, the day saw a slight drop before recovering to post a rate 1.4350 and above after we closed for the day. Much news this morning will be released about a sharp drop in rates, but when you look at the overall position of the Pound versus last week, my interpretation is that this isn’t a big shift in emphasis.
On the cards today:
- Some data that measure the state of the manufacturing industry in the States, the expectation is no significant change for the day.
Overall, this is shaping up to be a fairly quiet trading day again so I expect the rates to remain largely where they are at the moment until the direction is more certain.
The ongoing ‘Brexit’ talks continue with ever shifting emphases, but for now at least, we still are not aware of how that will finish up.
The GBPEUR rate on Friday did almost nothing at all, slightly moving downwards and then back again during the day. Again, sure we have seen a sharp sell of at opening, but really we are still largely where we were last week after moving back towards the 1.2800 mark as I write.
We’ve just had some German figures to show the strength of their Services and Manufacturing industries. Services were good but Manufacturing disappointed – being a powerful export nation they’d have wanted this the other way around if anything.
- Only the Eurozone wide Manufacturing and Services industry figures are to come and these are forecast to show a very slight pullback in strength but thought to still show that the industries are growing.
I think all in all, the GBP could meander back upwards against the EUR.
There is little data out today that concerns the UK, so for today at least we can expect a fairly flat number. There is much made of the potential for the UK to leave the European Union and how that will affect the economy and in turn the exchange rate.
Until the final whistle, though, this is all speculation.
Boris Johnson declared that he is supporting the UK leaving the EU as his party candidate, Zac Goldsmith.
Mark Carney, meanwhile, is keeping quiet on the issue and how it might affect any interest rate rises, a key factor in the direction of currency movements.